Traders in prediction markets believe that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has the highest probability of becoming the next trillionaire, with a likelihood of approximately 32%.
Kalshi traders assign Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang the second-highest probability, estimating a 21% chance that he will reach a net worth of one trillion dollars.
June 23 – Thanks to his stake in SpaceX, Elon Musk became the first person in human history to surpass a net worth of one trillion dollars after the company went public on June 12. Prediction market traders now consider Mark Zuckerberg the most likely candidate to become the next trillionaire, although this remains a low-probability event.
On the prediction platform Kalshi, traders are betting that Meta CEO Zuckerberg has a 32% chance of becoming the world’s second trillionaire.
According to the Forbes Billionaires List, Zuckerberg’s current net worth is slightly below $200 billion, ranking seventh globally. This implies that his wealth would need to quadruple to reach the trillion-dollar threshold.
The Kalshi contracts related to this question are set to expire in 2033. If the listed individual fails to become the second trillionaire by then, the contracts will automatically close. Currently, trading volume for these event contracts on Kalshi remains low, with total transactions just above $7,500.
Kalshi traders assign Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang the second-highest probability, suggesting a 21% chance that he will achieve a 13-figure (i.e., trillion-dollar) net worth. According to Forbes, Huang’s current net worth is slightly above $180 billion, ranking eighth globally.
Apart from Zuckerberg and Huang, all other individuals have a probability of less than 10% to become a trillionaire.
Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell ranks third with a 6% probability, despite his current net worth of $240 billion being higher than that of Zuckerberg and Huang. The market appears to believe that Meta and Nvidia have greater future valuation flexibility, thus giving Zuckerberg and Huang higher probabilities.
Although prediction market traders assign relatively low probabilities, related research suggests that multiple trillionaires may emerge in the future. A report released by Oxfam in January 2025 estimates that five trillionaires will appear globally within the next decade.
According to the Forbes Billionaires List, Musk currently ranks first with a net worth of $1.1 trillion, making him the world’s sole trillionaire. Notably, as SpaceX’s stock price has fallen for three consecutive days, Musk’s net worth has declined from approximately $1.1 trillion.
The historical peak of $4 trillion continues to decline.
On Monday, SpaceX shares plummeted more than 16%, with a single-day market value loss of $400.8 billion, marking the second-largest single-day market capitalization contraction in U.S. corporate history. As a result, Elon Musk’s wealth shrank by $152.3 billion in a single day. Musk holds approximately 38% of SpaceX shares.
