SpaceX Stock Plunges 16% to Record Low, Analyst Maintains Buy Rating with $250 Target

SpaceX shares plunged 16% on Monday to close at $154.60, marking the lowest level since the company’s public debut. Over the past three trading sessions, the cumulative decline has reached 23%, erasing more than $600 billion in market value. The company’s current market capitalization stands at just over $2 trillion.

Despite this downturn, Tim Horan, an analyst at Oppenheimer Asset Management specializing in AI infrastructure, satellite, and communications, remains bullish on SpaceX. He maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $250, implying a potential upside of nearly 62% from current levels.

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In a recent interview, Horan explained that SpaceX’s valuation has doubled over the past six months due to its entry into the artificial intelligence market, which he estimates to have a total addressable market of $25 trillion.

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Horan emphasized that SpaceX is “the only fully vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs (large language models), hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent,” positioning it to disrupt the AI sector.

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“They are the only vertically integrated company capable of entering every segment of this industry and truly disrupting numerous sectors,” Horan stated, noting that the company produces its own solar panels and has ambitious plans to manufacture its own chips through a facility that could potentially produce five times the global chip output.

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Horan also highlighted Elon Musk’s ambitious goal of achieving $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 as a significant opportunity. Musk previously commented on social media platform X, “I would be surprised if SpaceX’s revenue is less than $1 trillion by 2031.”

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“If he gets close to that target, companies of this nature typically trade at 10 times revenue growth. Therefore, we anticipate seeing a $10 trillion market cap company within five years,” Horan explained, while also noting that current valuations are far from reaching that level.
Horan believes that Starlink remains the primary driver of SpaceX’s revenue and free cash flow, and estimates that the satellite internet business could be valued at approximately one trillion dollars.

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Starlink currently has about 12 million active users globally, but Horan contends that its capacity could grow a hundredfold within the next five to ten years, potentially supporting hundreds of millions of users.

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“They will also expand into the mobile market, which will ultimately be larger than the broadband market,” he added, describing Starlink as SpaceX’s “cash cow” that funds the company’s artificial intelligence initiatives and, ultimately, its Mars program.

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The key to achieving these goals lies in space data centers, namely orbital data centers, and in how to launch these facilities into space. Horan pointed out that SpaceX aims to launch 10,000 Starship vehicles per year, or 27 per day, to deploy one million orbital data centers and 100,000 communication satellites, supporting Musk’s TeraFab program.

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TeraFab is the largest wafer fab plan in history, with its core objective defined directly by computing power: producing one terawatt of AI computing capacity annually, and explicitly proposing the construction of a petawatt-scale computing cluster in space for the first time.

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“This is an extremely ambitious project,” Horan acknowledged, “but this company and Elon Musk are both exceptionally adept at ambitious projects.”

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