① According to a report from S&P Global, the scale of layoffs among US manufacturing enterprises has approached the highest level since the end of the 2009 global financial crisis, primarily driven by heightened concerns over global demand and rising costs.
② Notably, economic growth momentum remains weak: US annualized economic growth in the first quarter was only 1.6%, and in the fourth quarter of 2025 it was merely 0.5%.
On June 24, S&P Global reported on Tuesday that layoffs among US manufacturing enterprises have reached near the highest level since the end of the 2009 global financial crisis, due to intensified concerns over global demand and rising costs.
Although the agency’s June manufacturing PMI reading outperformed market expectations, growth was mainly driven by enterprises restocking inventory. At the same time, the manufacturing sector experienced significant layoffs. Excluding the sudden large-scale personnel reductions in 2020, this round of layoffs marks the highest level since 2009.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated: “Although there has been some positive news from the manufacturing sector, we remain concerned because, amid supply-side worries, current factory growth is only temporarily supported by inventory restocking. Supply chain delays became increasingly widespread in June.”
In fact, over the past four months, manufacturing enterprises have chosen to lay off workers in three of those months, as they worry about costs and declining demand and seek to reduce headcount.
Williamson said: “The most concerning aspect is the further decline in employment, especially in the manufacturing sector… This reflects concerns about whether the recent rebound in demand can be sustained and about continuously rising raw material costs.”
Nevertheless, despite concerns over manufacturing layoffs, the overall employment situation this year has remained solid, with strong job growth in four of the past five months. According to forecasts from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing employment is expected to increase by 23,000 by 2026.
Overall, the “preliminary” reading of the S&P Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 55.7, slightly higher than May and above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 54.8. The index represents the percentage of companies reporting growth during the month. The preliminary Services PMI reading stood at 51.3, also slightly rebounding month-over-month and marginally above the market expectation of 51.
Since the beginning of this year, the resurgence of inflation has placed enormous pressure on businesses, with energy prices surging. Federal Reserve officials are considering raising interest rates, or at least avoiding rate cuts until the situation in the Middle East stabilizes. Williamson noted that recent news regarding a ceasefire in Iran and a possible lasting agreement triggered a decline in oil prices, which in turn helped businesses “restore some confidence.”
However, it is noteworthy that economic growth momentum remains weak: US annualized economic growth in the first quarter was only 1.6%, and in the fourth quarter of 2025 it was merely 0.5%.
Williamson stated: “The survey shows that the current output level indicates that the pace of economic growth in the second quarter is unlikely to exceed an annualized growth rate of 1%.” Nevertheless, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh described economic growth last week as “solid” and attributed “heightened uncertainty” in part to the conflict in the Middle East.
